PICKING PAIRS Consider doubling-up on line combinations

Imagine you are flipping a coin, with the goal of trying to land heads four times in seven chances. Fake Air Max 270 . Whats the better outcome? Game A: T H T H T H T Game B: H H H T T T T Obviously, the answer is neither – you only managed to land heads three times out of seven chances. In coin-flipping, we would almost certainly treat the two sequences as equals. Beyond the realm of coin-flipping, rational thought can deviate in a hurry. What if we changed the coin-flipping game to a best-of-seven hockey series, with heads signifying wins, and tails signifying losses? We have seen enough hockey to know the answer to this question. Game A would be treated as an unbelievably competitive best-of-seven; Game B, despite lasting the same number of games, would be treated as (a) an incredible choke-job by the heads group; and (b) a comeback story for the tails group. This accurately captures what happened to last years San Jose Sharks. The Sharks didnt just lose to rival Los Angeles in seven games – they went down in flames, blowing a 3-0 series lead. The Kings went on to win the Stanley Cup. San Jose could have spent the summer arming their roster to the teeth. Instead, they decided to do absolutely nothing, save for some predictable scapegoating of now ex-captain Joe Thornton. The overreaction to the first-round loss has left San Jose in a bad situation. One week ago, I noted that San Jose has experienced one of the biggest drops in 5-on-5 play this season, a far cry from the dominance they exhibited in years past. The poor play has translated unfavorably in the standings – they have only compiled 24 points in 23 games, good enough for tenth place in the West. San Joses not universally struggling this year. The larger problem with this team is that their depth is getting beaten up pretty badly compared to previous years. Since San Joses mostly stuck with the same guys down the middle of the lineup, troubleshooting the problem areas shouldnt be difficult: Sharks Lines Line Corsi +/- Per 60 Corsi% Goal% Couture Line +5.9 52.3% 47.4% Thornton Line +16.4 57.0% 52.0% Sheppard Line +11.7 55.3% 42.9% Burish*/Desjardins Line -29.9 35.9% 25.0% Its not really a surprise to see Adam Burish waived – San Joses fourth-line has been a massive Achilles heel for this team in the early going, a far cry from past competent depth that wasnt leaking scoring chance after scoring chance. On the other hand, the most impressive part of San Joses team remains Joe Thornton. Hes played a bulk of his minutes with Joe Pavelski and Tomas Hertl, the trio more or less caving in the opposition with frequency and relentlessness through the first quarter of the season. Also of note, they are really the only group of the four thats in the black as it pertains to goal rates. Theres a special kind of irony, I think, with the above table. San Jose spent an awful lot of time talking up a long-term rebuild and the closing of their contending window in the past few months, and for the most part, the team has taken a decisive step back. Except for Joe Thornton – the guy who was more or less fingered for San Joses early post-season exit. Hes been sensational, carrying an otherwise shaky Sharks team. And its important to note that Thornton doesnt just compare favorably to other lines in San Jose. We can pull out the same numbers for some of the best centers around the league, and Thornton still shines. Ive included individual scoring rates in this table as well: Elite Centre Production PLAYER TEAM Corsi +/- Per 60 Corsi% Goal% Points/60 Jonathan Toews Chicago +17.4 57.5% 50.0% 1.72 Joe Thornton San Jose +16.4 57.0% 52.0% 2.27 Henrik Sedin Vancouver +13.1 56.6% 57.1% 1.95 Jonathan Tavares N.Y. Islanders +12.2 55.2% 48.5% 2.01 Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh +11.6 56.8% 68.2% 2.51 Anze Kopitar Los Angeles +11.6 55.0% 47.4% 1.51 Tyler Seguin Dallas +4.3 51.8% 63.2% 3.52 In this group, the first six elite centers that came to my mind, along with the veteran Thornton. You can make the argument that every one of these centers plays on a likely playoff team, though Dallas and San Jose have obviously had slower-than-anticipated starts. The important takeaway from this group is that there’s virtually nothing separating any of the other six centers from Joe Thornton in terms of production. Thornton’s towing the second-best possession rate of the group, has seen favorable goal-rates on the ice, and is scoring at a better per-60 rate than guys like Toews, Sedin, Tavares, and Kopitar. We are left with maybe the most fascinating dynamic in the National Hockey League. By design, San Jose’s front office may have done just enough to push their team out of the top-eight this year. And yet, they simply have no answer for Joe Thornton – a player of such unique talent, he’s capable of carrying an entire lineup for games on end. Most teams would kill for this sort of player. San Jose? Don’t ask me to explain it. Wholesale Air Max 200 . Only it wasnt the extended right pad of his old teammate Jonathan Bernier early in the final frame, it was James Reimer, who stole a night that was supposed to belong to the former King. Cheap Authentic Air Max 95 . The Toronto Maple Leafs were holding a news conference, so they got curious. It didnt take long for them to find out via social media that coach Randy Carlyle was coming back — with a two-year extension — and assistants Greg Cronin, Scott Gordon and Dave Farrish were being let go. http://www.airmaxsneakersonsale.com/cheap-air-max-97.html .Y. - Rob Manfred was promoted Monday to Major League Baseballs chief operating officer, which may make him a candidate to succeed Bud Selig as commissioner.Playoff hockey begins Wednesday and this years Playoff Payoff once again has the numbers and information to help you win your playoff pool. Click here for TSN.cas 2014 NHL Playoff Payoff, a full team-by-team stats breakdown for your playoff pool prep. When it comes to playoff pools, the basic strategy is simple: pick players from the four teams you think will reach the Conference Finals; that will give the players selected ample opportunity to score enough points for your squad. Its very difficult, if not altogether impossible, to win without having a solid presence among the final four teams because no matter how many points get accumulated in early rounds, if your team runs out of active bodies before the Conference Finals, its going to be extremely challenging to hold the lead. Naturally, the focus will be on top seeds and there is nothing wrong with loading up on players from Boston and Chicago if you can get quality players. At the same time, it needs to be recognized that there is not a huge difference in quality between the rest of the playoff teams, so theres likely going to be plenty of value to be found on lower-seeded teams. That doesnt mean ignoring the blue chip players -- top players on the favourite teams are the most valuable -- but it does suggest that once you have laid the groundwork with players from higher-seeded teams, then there ought to be an opportunity to secure value on lower seeds. There will come a time, at some point in your draft, that you have to decide whether you would rather have the best player on a low seed or a lesser player on a top seed and the answer will probably come by looking at the players youve already selected. BEST PLAYER vs. PLAYER ON BEST TEAM If you can take the best player off a lower seed, and it wont contradict any of your early picks, then its likely a good move. If you dont have representation on a highly-seeded team already, its generally not worth it to start investing in lower-tier players. So, Reilly Smith and Carl Soderberg might offer value when youre picking Bruins, but if they are the best available Bruins by the time you pick, youre likely fighting an uphill battle to beat out teams that have David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Jarome Iginla etc. As an aside, it makes lots of sense to target Bruins because they have a more definitive edge over their Eastern Conference competition, compared to the West where, for example, legitimate Cup contenders Los Angeles and San Jose meet in Round One, and one of them has to lose. It could make more sense, instead, to go for Zach Parise or Mikko Koivu, top players on a lower seed that offer bigger marginal returns if they pull off at least one series upset. INJURIES Just as with the real teams involved, injuries are always a factor in fantasy sports, so its imperative to stay on top of the playing status of top players heading into the postseason, both for the potential line combinations and having some idea who might be filling in if a significant player remains sidelined. NHL teams are notorious for being vague or even dishonest regarding injuries at the best of times, let alone at this point in the season, but you may want to avoid, or at least decrease the value of, guys who are already going into the playoffs with injuries. As the playoffs start, there are a number of high profile players that arent expected to be ready. That list includes: Matt Duchene, Nathan Horton, Henrik Zetterberg, Mikael Granlund, Alex Galchenyuk, Chris Kreider, Evgeni Malkin, and Vladimir Tarasenko. Add into that mix, stars that at least have questionable health status after late-season injuries. Jonathan Toews, Drew Doughty, Ryan McDonagh, Martin Hanzal, T.J. Oshie, David Backes and Ben Bishop have all missed time late in the year and at least some could miss at least some first-round games. PICKING PAIRS Consider doubling-up on line combinations, when thhe value is right. Cheap Air Max 2019. If you set your sights on Joe Thornton early, youll get all the more enjoyment out of Brent Burns a round or two later. Over the short season of an NHL playoff tournament, a hot line can go a long way and if you happen to pick the right one, that can tilt the results of your pool. TAKE A CHANCE Dont be afraid to make a sleeper pick late in the draft. The small sample size of playoffs lends itself to unexpected results, like Bryan Bickell scoring 17 points last year, Bryce Salvador scoring 14 points in 24 games in 2012 (he had nine points in 82 regular season games), Joel Ward scoring 13 points in 12 games in 2011, Ville Leino tallying 21 points in 19 games in 2010 or many others, from Ruslan Fedotenko to R.J. Umberger to Fernando Pisani, generally unheralded players who have all had double-digit goal totals in a single playoff year. Late in your draft, roll the dice on an unheralded player that might have a decent opportunity. THE NUMBERS Given these basic plans, the following team lists will provide information to help organize your drafting priorities. Each player listed has their points per game listed and thats a general value to start with. Then, look at what the player has done in the later portion of this season. Usually, I break down splits after the All-Star break but, for this year, a look at the pre and post-Olympic splits can reveal some changing roles. If the point totals are higher, maybe its a young player who is taking on more responsibility, or a veteran whose playing situation changed due to trade. Gustav Nyquist, for example, could be held in higher esteem than the standard player that hasnt even scored 50 points. Nyquist was the leagues most dangerous scorer from about mid-January through to the end of the season. The third rate included for each player is their NHL career playoff scoring average. In the vast majority of situations, that number will be lower than players career averages because the playoffs are tighter checking games that involve the best teams. Even some great players have lower career scoring averages in the playoffs because they didnt contribute much early in their career and theyve since emerged as elite postseason perfomers. Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are among the high-profile players that didnt produce early in the playoffs, but have had many productive postseasons since then. By no means should previous playoff production eliminate a player from consideration -- because sometimes a player is labeled as unproven in the postseason, until suddenly he is -- but if a player has made a career of under-performing in the playoffs, the safe play could be to let someone else take that risk or wait an extra round or two before wading into those waters. Power plays rule the postseason so make sure your roster is loaded with players who get time with the man advantage. No one in the Top 20 of last years playoff scoring had zero power play points. Bostons Milan Lucic along with Chicagos Patrick Kane and Bryan Bickell each had one power play point. Power play defencemen, in particular, have more value in the playoffs so dont let these players slip by you in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft. Kris Letang, Zdeno Chara, Slava Voynov, Duncan Keith and Paul Martin all hit double figures in scoring in last years playoffs, all with at least four points on the power play. Power play point totals are included as a general guide for which players are most likely to get those man advantage opportunities. Finally, as the postseason approaches and match-ups are set, check out the Fantasy Hockey Update playoff editions, and my blog which will have my playoff picks for more information as you prepare to win your playoff pool. Click here for TSN.cas 2014 NHL Playoff Payoff, a full team-by-team stats breakdown for your playoff pool prep. ' ' '